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Showing posts with label personal finance theoretical frameworks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label personal finance theoretical frameworks. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
The purpose of this study was to summarize findings from empirical applications of the transtheoretical model (TTM) (Prochaska & DiClemente, 1983) in the physical activity domain by using the quantitative method of meta-analysis. Ninety-one independent samples from 71 published reports were located that present empirical data on at least one core construct of the TTM applied to exercise and physical activity. In general, results support the application because core constructs differ across stages and most changes are in the direction predicted by the theory. Three general conclusions are offered. First, existing data are unable to confirm whether physical activity behavior change occurs in a series of stages that are qualitatively different or along adjacent segments of an underlying continuum. Second, the growing number of studies that incorporate TTM concepts means that there is an increasing need to standardize and improve the reliability of measurement. Finally, the role of processes of change needs reexamining because the higher order constructs are not apparent in the physical activity domain and stage-by-process interactions are not evident. There now are sufficient data to confirm that stage membership is associated with different levels of physical activity, self-efficacy, pros and cons, and processes of change. Further studies that simply stage participants or examine cross-sectional differences between core constructs of the TTM are of limited use. Future research should examine the moderators and mediators of stage transition.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1207/S15324796ABM2304_2
Marshall, S.J., Biddle, S.J.H. The transtheoretical model of behavior change: a meta-analysis of applications to physical activity and exercise. ann. behav. med. 23, 229–246 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1207/S15324796ABM2304_2
Abstract
The Transtheoretical Model (TTM) is an integrative framework for understanding how individuals and populations progress toward adopting and maintaining health behavior change for optimal health. The Transtheoretical Model uses stages of change to integrate processes and principles of change from across major theories of intervention, hence the name "Transtheoretical." This model emerged from a comparative analysis of leading theories of psychotherapy and behavior change. The search was for a systematic integration of a field that had fragmented into more than 300 theories of psychotherapy. The comparative analysis identified only 10 processes of change, such as consciousness raising from the Freudian tradition, contingency management from the Skinnerian tradition, and helping relationships from the Rogerian tradition. From the initial studies of smoking, the stage model rapidly expanded in scope to include investigations of and applications to a broad range of health and mental health behaviors. These include alcohol and substance abuse, anxiety and panic disorders, stress and depression, partner violence and bullying, delinquency, eating disorders and obesity, high-fat diets, exercise, HIV/AIDS, use of mammography screening, medication compliance, unplanned pregnancy, pregnancy and smoking, radon testing, sedentary lifestyles, sun exposure, and the practice of preventive medicine. Over time, these studies have expanded, validated, applied, and challenged the core constructs of the Transtheoretical Model. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved)
https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-17602-004
Prochaska, J. O., Johnson, S., & Lee, P. (2009). The Transtheoretical Model of behavior change. In S. A. Shumaker, J. K. Ockene, & K. A. Riekert (Eds.), The handbook of health behavior change (p. 59–83). Springer Publishing Company.
Friday, October 9, 2020
Hipotesis siklus hidup perilaku
Abstrak
Pengendalian diri, penghitungan mental, dan pembingkaian digabungkan dalam pengayaan perilaku dari teori siklus hidup menabung yang disebut hipotesis behevioral life-cycle (BLC). Asumsi utama teori BLC adalah bahwa rumah tangga memperlakukan komponen kekayaan mereka sebagai sesuatu yang tidak dapat dimakan, meskipun tidak ada penjatahan kredit. Secara khusus, kekayaan diasumsikan dibagi menjadi tiga akun mental: pendapatan saat ini, aset saat ini, dan pendapatan masa depan. Godaan untuk berbelanja dianggap paling besar untuk pendapatan saat ini dan paling tidak untuk pendapatan di masa depan. Dukungan empiris yang cukup besar untuk teori BLC disajikan, terutama diambil dari studi ekonometrik yang diterbitkan.
pengantar
Teori siklus hidup tabungan Modigliani dan Brumberg (1954) dan hipotesis pendapatan permanen serupa Friedman (1957) adalah contoh klasik dari teori ekonomi. Model siklus hidup (LC) membuat beberapa asumsi penyederhanaan untuk mengkarakterisasi masalah optimasi yang terdefinisi dengan baik yang kemudian diselesaikan. Solusi untuk masalah pengoptimalan tersebut memberikan inti teori.
Upaya untuk menguji hipotesis siklus-hidup menemui keberhasilan yang beragam. Seperti yang dirangkum oleh Courant et al. (1986, 279-80), "Tapi untuk semua keanggunan dan rasionalitasnya, model siklus hidup belum teruji dengan baik ... Juga tidak ada upaya untuk menguji model siklus hidup dengan microdata cross-sectional berhasil dengan sangat berhasil . " Berbagai perubahan teori telah diusulkan untuk membantunya mengakomodasi data: menambahkan motif warisan, menghipotesiskan ketidaksempurnaan pasar modal, mengasumsikan bahwa fungsi utilitas untuk konsumsi berubah seiring waktu, atau menentukan bentuk ekspektasi tertentu terkait pendapatan di masa depan. Modifikasi ini sering kali tampak bersifat ad hoc, karena asumsi yang berbeda diperlukan untuk menjelaskan setiap hasil empiris yang tidak normal. Makalah ini menyarankan agar data dapat dijelaskan secara pelit dengan melakukan modifikasi terhadap teori siklus hidup yang agak berbeda semangatnya dengan yang telah dikutip di atas, yaitu modifikasi yang bertujuan untuk membuat teori tersebut lebih realistis secara perilaku. Kami menyebut model yang diperkaya ini sebagai hipotesis Behavioral Life Cycle (BLC).
...
Kesimpulan
Model LC jelas merupakan tradisi arus utama teori ekonomi mikro. Ini adalah tipikal dari pendekatan umum dalam ekonomi mikro, yang menggunakan model pemaksimalan berbasis normatif untuk tujuan deskriptif. Makalah terbaru oleh Hall dan Mishkin (1982) dan Courant et al. (1986) benar-benar kemajuan dalam tradisi LC.
Model kami sangat berbeda dalam semangat. Pertama-tama, agen kami memiliki keterbatasan yang sangat manusiawi, dan mereka menggunakan aturan praktis yang, pada dasarnya, adalah yang terbaik kedua. Sementara model LC adalah kasus khusus dari model kami (jika ada aturan terbaik pertama atau tidak ada masalah pengendalian diri), model kami dikembangkan secara khusus untuk menggambarkan perilaku aktual, bukan untuk mencirikan perilaku rasional. Ini berbeda dari pendekatan standar dalam tiga hal penting.
(1) Konsisten dengan perilaku yang tidak dapat direkonsiliasi dengan fungsi utilitas tunggal.
(2) Ini memungkinkan faktor-faktor "tidak relevan" (yaitu faktor-faktor selain usia dan kekayaan) untuk mempengaruhi konsumsi. Bahkan bentuk pembayarannya pun penting.
(3) Pilihan sebenarnya bisa saja sesuai dengan anggaran yang ditetapkan (sebagai klub Natal).
Hubungan antara model pengendalian diri dan model LC mirip dengan hubungan antara teori prospek Daniel Kahneman dan Arnos Tversky (1979) dan teori utilitas yang diharapkan. Teori utilitas yang diharapkan adalah standar yang mapan untuk pilihan rasional di bawah ketidakpastian. Kegagalannya untuk menggambarkan perilaku individu telah menyebabkan pengembangan model lain (seperti teori prospek) yang tampaknya melakukan pekerjaan yang lebih baik pada tugas-tugas deskripsi dan prediksi. Keunggulan teori prospek sebagai model prediktif, tentunya sama sekali tidak melemahkan nilai teori utilitas yang diharapkan sebagai norma preskriptif. Demikian pula, karena kami memandang model LC sebagai menangkap preferensi perencana kami, kami tidak ingin mempertanyakan nilainya bagi teori ekonomi preskriptif. Model LC juga memiliki peran yang sangat berguna dalam memberikan teori yang dengannya bukti empiris dapat dinilai. Misalnya, penggantian kerugian pensiun satu-ke-satu adalah hasil dari model LC (tanpa warisan), dan banyak penelitian yang kami kutip tidak diragukan lagi didorong oleh kesempatan untuk menguji prediksi ini. Kecukupan tabungan bahkan secara lebih langsung membutuhkan kriteria siklus-hidup tabungan yang sesuai yang dengannya tabungan aktual dapat dibandingkan.
Kadang-kadang kami berpendapat bahwa penggunaan asumsi ad hoc, yang ditambahkan ke teori setelah bukti empiris yang anomali diajukan, membuat model LC tidak stabil. Masuk akal untuk menanyakan apakah model kita dapat diuji. Kami pikir itu benar. Setiap proposisi yang kami teliti dalam makalah ini mewakili sebuah tes yang mungkin gagal model kami. Misalnya, jika estimasi offset pensiun sebagian besar mendekati -1.0 dan bukan mendekati nol, kami akan menganggapnya sebagai bukti bahwa masalah pengendalian diri secara empiris tidak penting. Demikian pula, efek bonus pada tabungan bisa saja diabaikan, yang menyiratkan bahwa akuntansi mental hanya memiliki sedikit tambahan.
Tes lain juga dimungkinkan. Teori kami menyarankan proposisi tambahan berikut ...
Thursday, September 24, 2020
Family Management
https://www.jstor.org/stable/350159
Nichols, A., Mumaw, C., Paynter, M., Plonk, M., & Price, D. (1971). Family Management. Journal of Marriage and Family, 33(1), 112-118. doi:10.2307/350159
Home management, by definition, takes place in the context of a family organization. Families, if effective social agents, fulfill the sociogenic and biogenic needs of their members by performaing instrumental and expressive functions. Instrumental functions are those that provide and allocate scarce economic resources to multiple goals. Expressive functions provide for the love and belonging needs of individual members as well as developing the affective bonds and morale that foster the cooperative teamwork needed in integrated organizations. Family management has primarily focused on the instrumental activities of families, and family relationships, on the expressive activities (Broderick, 1970). Likert (1961), however, has shown that effective management as a group process requires agreement on goals and cooperative teamwork for their achievement. The two functions, therefore, interact and are interdependent and cannot be treated as mutually exclusive functions.
Social and economic decision making processes and structures provide the medium of this interaction: the expressive function requires social decisions which aim at tension reduction or conflict resolution or greater stability and harmony; economic decisions attempt to maximize the achievement of given ends. For families to achieve both aims requires a combined method which aims to reconcile morale needs with economic means by allotting economic resources to morale uses and converting such expressive resources as loyalty into the means of goal achievement (Diesing, 1958).
An analysis of the performance of members of a social group cannot ignore the concept of role with its status, expectations, and sanctions nor its interaction with other roles if the analysis is adequately to describe, explain, or predict behavior of any one actor. Family economics and management research has primarily focused on the female homemaker as the actor’s behavior with which it is concerned. It has generally made two assumptions: the first is that the wife-mother-homemaker is a major instrumental leader for the provision of goods and services of family use and the selection of consumption items in the market; secondly her performance in this role is independent of the other roles as wife or mother, i.e., as a major expressive leader also.
The emphasis likely accounts in large measure for the scarcity of research which would help to describe more realistically the complexity of her role and contribution as a family member. Is it not possible because she plays major roles in both the instrumental and expressive domains that her primary role is one of mediator between the two domains in family interaction with its attendant complexity and constraints? Such a view of her role cannot only provide research nearer to the reality of her performance but can be a means of coordinating and reinforcing the research efforts of both sides of the family studies field.
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Theory of Planned Behavior in Saving Behavior
International Journal of Financial Research Vol. 9 No. 2; 2018
Applying the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) in Saving Behaviour of Pomak Households
Nikolaos Satsios & Spyros Hadjidakis
Online Published: March 16, 2018
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323803513_Applying_the_Theory_of_Planned_Behaviour_TPB_in_Saving_Behaviour_of_Pomak_Households
Measurement of constructs and their items:
1. Attitude towards saving:
- paying debts
- retirement
- education / love / family
- future uncertainties / emergency / safety
2. Subjective norms:
- I make financial contributions to my religious organization
- I spend time trying to grow in understanding of my faith
- Religion is especially important to me because it answers many questions about the meaning of life
- My religious beliefs lie behind my whole approach to life
3. Perceived behavioural control:
- There is really no way I can solve some of the problems I have
- Sometimes I feel that I'm being pushed around in life
- I have little control over the things that happen to me
- I often feel helpless in dealing with the problems of life
- There is little I can do to change many of the important things in my life.
4. Intention towards saving:
- I always try to pick saving schemes that yield high profits
- It is important always to save as much money left at the end of the month
- Saving should be encouraged in today's society
Applying the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) in Saving Behaviour of Pomak Households
Nikolaos Satsios & Spyros Hadjidakis
Online Published: March 16, 2018
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323803513_Applying_the_Theory_of_Planned_Behaviour_TPB_in_Saving_Behaviour_of_Pomak_Households
Measurement of constructs and their items:
1. Attitude towards saving:
- paying debts
- retirement
- education / love / family
- future uncertainties / emergency / safety
2. Subjective norms:
- I make financial contributions to my religious organization
- I spend time trying to grow in understanding of my faith
- Religion is especially important to me because it answers many questions about the meaning of life
- My religious beliefs lie behind my whole approach to life
3. Perceived behavioural control:
- There is really no way I can solve some of the problems I have
- Sometimes I feel that I'm being pushed around in life
- I have little control over the things that happen to me
- I often feel helpless in dealing with the problems of life
- There is little I can do to change many of the important things in my life.
4. Intention towards saving:
- I always try to pick saving schemes that yield high profits
- It is important always to save as much money left at the end of the month
- Saving should be encouraged in today's society
Thursday, January 31, 2019
Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypotheses
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5210679_The_Behavioral_Life-Cycle_Hypothesis
Therefore, in an effort to get beyond this sort of general critique, we suggest that the life-cycle model can be enriched by incorporating three important behavioral features that are usually missing in economic analyses. (1) Self-control: we recognize that self-control is costly, and that economic agents will use various devices such as pension plans and rules-of-thumb to deal with the difficulties of postponing a significant portion of their consumption until retirement. We also incorporate temptation into the analysis since some situations are less conductive to saving than others. (2) Mental accounting: most households act as if they used a system of mental accounts which violate the principle of fungibility. Specifically, some mental accounts, those which are considered "wealth", are less tempting than those which are considered "income". (3) Framing: an implication of the differential temptation of various mental accounts is that the saving rate can be affected by the way in which increments to wealth are "framed" or described. Our model predicts that income paid in the form of a lump sum bonus will be treated differently from regular income even if the bonus is completely anticipated. Building upon the research done on these topics by psychologists and other social scientists, we are able to make specific predictions about how actual household saving behavior will differ from the idealized LC model.
p.610
THE MODEL
Self-Control and Temptation: The Problem
In the Theory of Interest Irving Fisher bases his explanation of personal saving upon five characteristics: foresight, self-control, habits, expectation of life, and love for posterity. We concentrate here on the first three factors and the relationships among them. Foresight is important since retirement saving requires long-term planning. Self-control is necessary because immediate consumption is always an attractive alternative to retirement saving. Successfully dealing with self-control problems requires the cultivation of good habits. In presenting our model we begin with the concept of self-control.
p.610
How does self-control differ from ordinary choice? The distinguished psychologist William James I says that the key attribute of self-control choices is the "feeling of effort" that is present.
Effort of attention is thus the essential phenomenon of will. Every reader must know by his own experience that this is so, for every reader must have felt some fiery passion's grasp. What constitutes the difficulty for a man laboring under an unwise passion of acting as if the passion were wise? Certainly there is no physical difficulty. It is as easy physically to avoid a fight as to begin one, to pocket one's money as to squander it on one's cupidities, to walk away from as towards a coquette's door. The difficulty is mental: it is that of getting the idea of the wise action to stay before our mind at all.
Incorporating the effort that is present in self-control contexts involves three elements normally excluded from economic analyses: internal conflict, temptation, and willpower. The very term "self-control" implies that the trade-offs between immediate gratification and long-run benefits entail a conflict that is not present in a choice between a white shirt and a blue one. When modeling choice under such circumstances the concept of temptation must be incorporated because of the obvious fact that some situations are more tempting than others. A model of saving that omits temptation is misspecified. The term willpower represents the real psychic costs of resisting temptation. The behavioral life cycle hypothesis modifies the standard life cycle model to incorporate these features. To capture formally the notion of internal conflict between the rational and emotional aspects of an individual's personality, we employ a dual preference structure. Individuals are assumed to behave as if they have two sets of coexisting and mutually inconsistent preferences: one concerned with the long run, and the other with the short run. We refer to the former as the planner and the latter as the doer. To place the preceding concepts into a formal structure consider an individual whose lifetime extends over T periods, with the final period representing retirement. The lifetime income stream is given by y. For simplicity we assume a perfect capital market and zero real rate of interest. Let retirement income be zero.
p.611
p. 636-638
CONCLUSION
The LC model is clearly in the mainstream tradition of microeconomic theory. It is typical of the general approach in microeconomics, which is to use a normative-based maximizing model for descriptive purposes. The recent papers by Hall and Mishkin (1982) and Courant et al. (1986) are really advances in the LC tradition.
Our model is quite different in spirit. First of all, our agents have very human limitations, and they use simple rules of thumb that are, by nature, second-best. While the LC model is a special case of our model (when either a first-best rule exists or ther is no self-control problem), our model was developed specifically to describe actual behavior, not to characterize rational behavior. It differs from a standard approach in three important ways.
(1) It is consistent with behavior that cannot be reconciled with a single utility function.
(2) It permits "irrelevant" factors (i.e., those other than age and wealth) to affect consumption. Even the form of payment can matter.
(3) Actual choices can be strictly within the budget set (as a Christmas club).
The relationship between the self-control model and the LC model is similar to the relationship between Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky's (1979) prospect theory and expected utility theory. Expected utility theory [p.637] is a well- established standard for rational choice under uncertainty. Its failure to describe individual behavior has led to the development of other models (such as prospect theory) that appear to do a better job at the tasks of description and prediction. The superiority of prospect theory as a predictive model, of course, in no way weakens expected utility theory's value as a presciptive norm. Similarly, since we view the LC model as capturing the preferences of our planner, we do not wish to question its value to prescriptive economic theory. The LC model has also served an enormously useful role in providing the theory against which empirical evidence can be judged. For example, the one-to-one pension offset was a result derived from the LC model (without bequests), and the numerous studies we cite were no doubt stimulated by the opportunity to test this prediction. Saving adequacy even more directly requires a life-cycle criterion of appropriate saving with which actual saving can be compared.
At times we have argued that the use of ad hoc assumptions, added to the theory after the anomalous empirical evidence has been brought forward, renders the LC model untestable. It is reasonable to ask whether our model is testable. We think that it is. Every one of the propositions we examined in this paper represents a test our model might have failed. For example, if the estimated pension offsets were mostly close to -1.0 instead of mostly close to zero, we would have taken that as evidence that self-control problems are empirically unimportant. Similarly, the effects of bonuses on saving could have been negligible, implying that mental accounting has little to add.
Other tests are also possible. Our theory suggests the following additional propositions.
PREDICTION 8. Holding lifetime income constant, home ownership will increase retirement wealth.
PREDICTION 9. The marginal propensity to consume inheritance income will depend on the form in which the inheritance is received.
The more the inheritance resembles "income" rather than "wealth", the greater will be the MPC. Thus the MPC will be greater for cash than for stocks, and greater for stocks than for real estate.
PREDICTION 10. The marginal propensity to consume dividend income is greater than the marginal propensity to consume increases in the value of stock holdings.
We have not investigated the empirical validity of these propositions. We hope others who are skeptical of our theory will do so. Nevertheless, while we think that neither our theory nor the LC theory is empty, refutation is probably not the most useful way of thinking about the task at hand. It is easy to demonstrate that any theory in social science is wrong. (We do not believe that individuals literally have planners and doers, for example.) Negative results and counterexamples must be only a first step. This paper is [p.638] intended to be constructive rather than destructive, and to show that the consideration of self-control problems enables us to identify variables that are usually ignored in economic analyses but which have an important influence on behavior.
ABSTRACTS
Self-control, mental accounting, and framing are incorporated in a behavioral enrichment of the life-cycle theory of saving called the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis. The key assumption of the behavioral life-cycle theory is that households treat components of their wealth as nonfungible, even in the absence of credit rationing. Specifically, wealth is assumed to be divided into three mental accounts: current income, current assets, and future income. The temptation to spend is assumed to be greatest for current income and least for future income. Considerable empirical support for the behavioral life-cycle theory is presented, primarily drawn from published econometric studies. Copyright 1988 by Oxford University Press.
Therefore, in an effort to get beyond this sort of general critique, we suggest that the life-cycle model can be enriched by incorporating three important behavioral features that are usually missing in economic analyses. (1) Self-control: we recognize that self-control is costly, and that economic agents will use various devices such as pension plans and rules-of-thumb to deal with the difficulties of postponing a significant portion of their consumption until retirement. We also incorporate temptation into the analysis since some situations are less conductive to saving than others. (2) Mental accounting: most households act as if they used a system of mental accounts which violate the principle of fungibility. Specifically, some mental accounts, those which are considered "wealth", are less tempting than those which are considered "income". (3) Framing: an implication of the differential temptation of various mental accounts is that the saving rate can be affected by the way in which increments to wealth are "framed" or described. Our model predicts that income paid in the form of a lump sum bonus will be treated differently from regular income even if the bonus is completely anticipated. Building upon the research done on these topics by psychologists and other social scientists, we are able to make specific predictions about how actual household saving behavior will differ from the idealized LC model.
p.610
THE MODEL
Self-Control and Temptation: The Problem
In the Theory of Interest Irving Fisher bases his explanation of personal saving upon five characteristics: foresight, self-control, habits, expectation of life, and love for posterity. We concentrate here on the first three factors and the relationships among them. Foresight is important since retirement saving requires long-term planning. Self-control is necessary because immediate consumption is always an attractive alternative to retirement saving. Successfully dealing with self-control problems requires the cultivation of good habits. In presenting our model we begin with the concept of self-control.
p.610
How does self-control differ from ordinary choice? The distinguished psychologist William James I says that the key attribute of self-control choices is the "feeling of effort" that is present.
Effort of attention is thus the essential phenomenon of will. Every reader must know by his own experience that this is so, for every reader must have felt some fiery passion's grasp. What constitutes the difficulty for a man laboring under an unwise passion of acting as if the passion were wise? Certainly there is no physical difficulty. It is as easy physically to avoid a fight as to begin one, to pocket one's money as to squander it on one's cupidities, to walk away from as towards a coquette's door. The difficulty is mental: it is that of getting the idea of the wise action to stay before our mind at all.
Incorporating the effort that is present in self-control contexts involves three elements normally excluded from economic analyses: internal conflict, temptation, and willpower. The very term "self-control" implies that the trade-offs between immediate gratification and long-run benefits entail a conflict that is not present in a choice between a white shirt and a blue one. When modeling choice under such circumstances the concept of temptation must be incorporated because of the obvious fact that some situations are more tempting than others. A model of saving that omits temptation is misspecified. The term willpower represents the real psychic costs of resisting temptation. The behavioral life cycle hypothesis modifies the standard life cycle model to incorporate these features. To capture formally the notion of internal conflict between the rational and emotional aspects of an individual's personality, we employ a dual preference structure. Individuals are assumed to behave as if they have two sets of coexisting and mutually inconsistent preferences: one concerned with the long run, and the other with the short run. We refer to the former as the planner and the latter as the doer. To place the preceding concepts into a formal structure consider an individual whose lifetime extends over T periods, with the final period representing retirement. The lifetime income stream is given by y. For simplicity we assume a perfect capital market and zero real rate of interest. Let retirement income be zero.
p.611
p. 636-638
CONCLUSION
The LC model is clearly in the mainstream tradition of microeconomic theory. It is typical of the general approach in microeconomics, which is to use a normative-based maximizing model for descriptive purposes. The recent papers by Hall and Mishkin (1982) and Courant et al. (1986) are really advances in the LC tradition.
Our model is quite different in spirit. First of all, our agents have very human limitations, and they use simple rules of thumb that are, by nature, second-best. While the LC model is a special case of our model (when either a first-best rule exists or ther is no self-control problem), our model was developed specifically to describe actual behavior, not to characterize rational behavior. It differs from a standard approach in three important ways.
(1) It is consistent with behavior that cannot be reconciled with a single utility function.
(2) It permits "irrelevant" factors (i.e., those other than age and wealth) to affect consumption. Even the form of payment can matter.
(3) Actual choices can be strictly within the budget set (as a Christmas club).
The relationship between the self-control model and the LC model is similar to the relationship between Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky's (1979) prospect theory and expected utility theory. Expected utility theory [p.637] is a well- established standard for rational choice under uncertainty. Its failure to describe individual behavior has led to the development of other models (such as prospect theory) that appear to do a better job at the tasks of description and prediction. The superiority of prospect theory as a predictive model, of course, in no way weakens expected utility theory's value as a presciptive norm. Similarly, since we view the LC model as capturing the preferences of our planner, we do not wish to question its value to prescriptive economic theory. The LC model has also served an enormously useful role in providing the theory against which empirical evidence can be judged. For example, the one-to-one pension offset was a result derived from the LC model (without bequests), and the numerous studies we cite were no doubt stimulated by the opportunity to test this prediction. Saving adequacy even more directly requires a life-cycle criterion of appropriate saving with which actual saving can be compared.
At times we have argued that the use of ad hoc assumptions, added to the theory after the anomalous empirical evidence has been brought forward, renders the LC model untestable. It is reasonable to ask whether our model is testable. We think that it is. Every one of the propositions we examined in this paper represents a test our model might have failed. For example, if the estimated pension offsets were mostly close to -1.0 instead of mostly close to zero, we would have taken that as evidence that self-control problems are empirically unimportant. Similarly, the effects of bonuses on saving could have been negligible, implying that mental accounting has little to add.
Other tests are also possible. Our theory suggests the following additional propositions.
PREDICTION 8. Holding lifetime income constant, home ownership will increase retirement wealth.
PREDICTION 9. The marginal propensity to consume inheritance income will depend on the form in which the inheritance is received.
The more the inheritance resembles "income" rather than "wealth", the greater will be the MPC. Thus the MPC will be greater for cash than for stocks, and greater for stocks than for real estate.
PREDICTION 10. The marginal propensity to consume dividend income is greater than the marginal propensity to consume increases in the value of stock holdings.
We have not investigated the empirical validity of these propositions. We hope others who are skeptical of our theory will do so. Nevertheless, while we think that neither our theory nor the LC theory is empty, refutation is probably not the most useful way of thinking about the task at hand. It is easy to demonstrate that any theory in social science is wrong. (We do not believe that individuals literally have planners and doers, for example.) Negative results and counterexamples must be only a first step. This paper is [p.638] intended to be constructive rather than destructive, and to show that the consideration of self-control problems enables us to identify variables that are usually ignored in economic analyses but which have an important influence on behavior.
ABSTRACTS
Self-control, mental accounting, and framing are incorporated in a behavioral enrichment of the life-cycle theory of saving called the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis. The key assumption of the behavioral life-cycle theory is that households treat components of their wealth as nonfungible, even in the absence of credit rationing. Specifically, wealth is assumed to be divided into three mental accounts: current income, current assets, and future income. The temptation to spend is assumed to be greatest for current income and least for future income. Considerable empirical support for the behavioral life-cycle theory is presented, primarily drawn from published econometric studies. Copyright 1988 by Oxford University Press.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Utility Theory
Utility Theory
https://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kevinlb/teaching/cs532l%20-%202013-14/Lectures/Utility%20Theory.pdf
A utility function is a real-valued function that indicates how much agents like an outcome.
In the presence of uncertainty, rational agents act to maximize their expected utility.
Utility is a foundational concept in game theory.
But it is a nontrivial claim:
1 Why should we believe that an agent's preferences can be adequately represented by a single number?
2 Why should agents maximize expectations rather than some other criterion?
Von Neumann and Morgenstern's theorem shows why (and when!) these are true.
It is also a good example of some common elements in game theory (and economics):
Behaving \as-if"
Axiomatic characterization
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenstern_utility_theorem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility
http://static.luiss.it/hey/microeconomia/book/Ch21.pdf
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/257028?journalCode=jpe
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24099287_Assessment_of_Attribute_Importances_and_Consumer_Utility_Functions_Von_Neumann-Morgenstern_Theory_Applied_to_Consumer_Behavior
CONCLUSION
This initial application of vN-M utility theory indicates that consumer measurement is feasible, psychological attributes can be included, and empirical results were equal to or better than two competing approaches. These are encouraging results because this implies vN-M utility theory's attractive features of modeling risk, indifference measurement, and identification of practical form have potential for application in consumer research.
Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory can be a valuable tool for understanding and predicting consumer behavior. It can be most effective if: (1) risk aversion and interaction phenomena are deemed to be important in the consumer's behavior, (2) a sufficient budget is available for the personal interviews, (3) individual utility parameters are important to the research or managerial question, and (4) consumers are well educated. It is particularly effective if the number of decision-makers is small and the choice decision large. For example, purchase of large computers, aircraft, automated machine tools, or other industrial products might be good applications. Other useful examples might be consumer durables, such as washer / dryers or automobiles. In services it might be applicable to health care, college selection, and career selection.
Several future areas of research are appropriate. Our application acknowledges measurement error, but does not explicitly include it in parameter estimation. Research is needed to allow degrees of freedom and to develop distributional assumptions for parameter estimation. The utility and conjoint axioms appear compatible, but research is needed to develop a common set of consistent axioms. Needed also are statistical tests of assumptions so that confidence limits can be set for the repeated lottery and tradeoff questions used in testing utility and preferential independence.
Another topic is the development of more efficient measurement techniques, thus allowing some combination of more complexity, more attributes, or more assumption testing. A final need is to develop simpler measurement methods. Our sample was MIT students. Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory requires further testing to determine whether an average respondent could accurately answer lottery questions, even with careful training.
https://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kevinlb/teaching/cs532l%20-%202013-14/Lectures/Utility%20Theory.pdf
A utility function is a real-valued function that indicates how much agents like an outcome.
In the presence of uncertainty, rational agents act to maximize their expected utility.
Utility is a foundational concept in game theory.
But it is a nontrivial claim:
1 Why should we believe that an agent's preferences can be adequately represented by a single number?
2 Why should agents maximize expectations rather than some other criterion?
Von Neumann and Morgenstern's theorem shows why (and when!) these are true.
It is also a good example of some common elements in game theory (and economics):
Behaving \as-if"
Axiomatic characterization
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenstern_utility_theorem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility
http://static.luiss.it/hey/microeconomia/book/Ch21.pdf
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/257028?journalCode=jpe
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24099287_Assessment_of_Attribute_Importances_and_Consumer_Utility_Functions_Von_Neumann-Morgenstern_Theory_Applied_to_Consumer_Behavior
CONCLUSION
This initial application of vN-M utility theory indicates that consumer measurement is feasible, psychological attributes can be included, and empirical results were equal to or better than two competing approaches. These are encouraging results because this implies vN-M utility theory's attractive features of modeling risk, indifference measurement, and identification of practical form have potential for application in consumer research.
Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory can be a valuable tool for understanding and predicting consumer behavior. It can be most effective if: (1) risk aversion and interaction phenomena are deemed to be important in the consumer's behavior, (2) a sufficient budget is available for the personal interviews, (3) individual utility parameters are important to the research or managerial question, and (4) consumers are well educated. It is particularly effective if the number of decision-makers is small and the choice decision large. For example, purchase of large computers, aircraft, automated machine tools, or other industrial products might be good applications. Other useful examples might be consumer durables, such as washer / dryers or automobiles. In services it might be applicable to health care, college selection, and career selection.
Several future areas of research are appropriate. Our application acknowledges measurement error, but does not explicitly include it in parameter estimation. Research is needed to allow degrees of freedom and to develop distributional assumptions for parameter estimation. The utility and conjoint axioms appear compatible, but research is needed to develop a common set of consistent axioms. Needed also are statistical tests of assumptions so that confidence limits can be set for the repeated lottery and tradeoff questions used in testing utility and preferential independence.
Another topic is the development of more efficient measurement techniques, thus allowing some combination of more complexity, more attributes, or more assumption testing. A final need is to develop simpler measurement methods. Our sample was MIT students. Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory requires further testing to determine whether an average respondent could accurately answer lottery questions, even with careful training.
Ecological Models of Human Development
http://impactofspecialneeds.weebly.com/uploads/3/4/1/9/3419723/ecologial_models_of_human_development.pdf
Urie Bronfenbrenner (1994)
International Encyclopedia of Education, Vol. 3, 2nd. Ed. Oxford: Elsevier.
NY: Freeman.
Urie Bronfenbrenner argues that in order to understand human development, one must consider the entire ecological system in which growth occurs. This system is composed of five socially organized subsystems that help support and guide human growth. They range from the microsystem, which refers to the relationship between a developing person and the immediate environment, such as school and family, to the macrosystem, which refers to institutional patterns of culture, such as the economy, customs, and bodies of knowledge.
1. A microsystem is a pattern of activities, social roles, and interpersonal relations experienced by the developing person in a given face-to-face setting with particular physical, social, and symbolic features that invite, permit, or inhibit engagement in sustained, progressively more complex interaction with, and activity in, the immediate environment. Examples include such settings as family, school, peer group, and workplace.
2. The mesosystem comprises the linkages and processes taking place between two or more settings containing the developing person (e.g., the relations between home and school, school and workplace, etc). In other words, a mesosystem is a system of microsystems.
3. The exosystem comprises the linkages and processes taking place between two or more settings, at least one of which does not contain the developing person, but in which events occur that indirectly influence processes within the immediate setting in which the developing person lives (e.g., for a child, the relation between the home and the parent's workplace; for a parent, the relation between the school and the neighborhood peer group).
4. The macrosystem consists of the overarching pattern of micro-, meso-, and exosystems characteristic of a given culture or subculture, with particular reference to the belief systems, bodies of knowledge, material resources, customs, life-styles, opportunity structures, hazards, and life course options that are embedded in each of these broader systems. The macrosystem may be thought of as a societal blueprint for a particular culture or subculture.
5. A chronosystem encompasses change or consistency over time not only in the characteristics of the person but also of the environment in which that person lives (e.g., changes over the life course in family structure, socioeconomic status, employment, place of residence, or the degree of hecticness and ability in everyday life).
Urie Bronfenbrenner (1994)
International Encyclopedia of Education, Vol. 3, 2nd. Ed. Oxford: Elsevier.
NY: Freeman.
Urie Bronfenbrenner argues that in order to understand human development, one must consider the entire ecological system in which growth occurs. This system is composed of five socially organized subsystems that help support and guide human growth. They range from the microsystem, which refers to the relationship between a developing person and the immediate environment, such as school and family, to the macrosystem, which refers to institutional patterns of culture, such as the economy, customs, and bodies of knowledge.
1. A microsystem is a pattern of activities, social roles, and interpersonal relations experienced by the developing person in a given face-to-face setting with particular physical, social, and symbolic features that invite, permit, or inhibit engagement in sustained, progressively more complex interaction with, and activity in, the immediate environment. Examples include such settings as family, school, peer group, and workplace.
2. The mesosystem comprises the linkages and processes taking place between two or more settings containing the developing person (e.g., the relations between home and school, school and workplace, etc). In other words, a mesosystem is a system of microsystems.
3. The exosystem comprises the linkages and processes taking place between two or more settings, at least one of which does not contain the developing person, but in which events occur that indirectly influence processes within the immediate setting in which the developing person lives (e.g., for a child, the relation between the home and the parent's workplace; for a parent, the relation between the school and the neighborhood peer group).
4. The macrosystem consists of the overarching pattern of micro-, meso-, and exosystems characteristic of a given culture or subculture, with particular reference to the belief systems, bodies of knowledge, material resources, customs, life-styles, opportunity structures, hazards, and life course options that are embedded in each of these broader systems. The macrosystem may be thought of as a societal blueprint for a particular culture or subculture.
5. A chronosystem encompasses change or consistency over time not only in the characteristics of the person but also of the environment in which that person lives (e.g., changes over the life course in family structure, socioeconomic status, employment, place of residence, or the degree of hecticness and ability in everyday life).
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